Chapter Eighteen: A Predictive Model of International Affairs
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Chapter Summary The policy forecasting model described in this chapter was developed by Bueno de Mesquita. It operates primarily on the basis of expected utility theory, the basic elements of which were introduced in Chapter 3. The model asks users to define the key actors or stakeholders on an issue, then to provide data on each actor's capabilities and preferred positions, as well as the salience of the issue. Then it uses this information to create median-voter-driven predictions of actions and shifts over multiple rounds of bargaining. The model's predictions have an accuracy rate of around 90 percent in applied use by the U.S. government.
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