Chapter Eleven: Perceptions, Deterrence, and Terrorism

Study

Chapter Summary

This chapter explores two prominent issues in the study of conflict in which perceptions are critical: deterrence and terrorism. Deterrence is most fundamentally a game of making the other side believe that your threat of resistance or retaliation is credible. Terrorism is often driven by perceptions of the group about the government's willingness to grant their demands, and also by the government's perceptions of the group's willingness to renounce violence. Governments can occasionally use deals with moderate (reluctant) terrorist groups to help identify and restrain more hard-line or extremist groups. Actors can learn about their opponents and environments by modifying their perceptions in response to new information. Formally, this updating is represented by a mathematical formula known as Bayes' Rule.

Study Questions

• What are the major types of deterrence? How might states practice each?
  
  
  
• Why was MAD a noncredible strategy for punishment? Think in terms of the four faces of power and the costs and benefits associated with each for the user and the target/recipient.
  
  
  
• Let's say state A wants to deter state B from attacking it. What kinds of actions can A take to influence B's perceptions of A' credibility?
  
  
  
• Let's say now that state A wants to deter state B from attacking state C. What options does this add to (or subtract from) A's menu of options?
  
  
  
• How do these actions taken by state A affect state B? In other words, what happens to the level of information or uncertainty in the situation? Under what conditions should B believe A?
  
  
  
• Why is terrorism a rational action for oppressed groups? (Think analytically. NO POLEMICS.)
  
  
  
• What kinds of commitment problems do governments face when they attempt to negotiate with terrorists? What kinds of commitment problems do terrorist groups face if they want to negotiate with the government?
  
  
  
• How can governments attempt to use moderate terrorist groups in the fight against hard-line or extremist groups?