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Chapter Ten: Perceptions in International Affairs
When actors are fully informed about each others' preferences and capabilities, perceptions do not factor into their decisions. This state of complete information is, however, rare. When actors must choose under uncertainty, the strategic perspective argues, their perceptions strongly shape behavior. Because we don't know what we are facing, we can only respond to what we believe we are facing--which may or may not be the true state of the world. This uncertainty leaves room for actors to manipulate each others' perceptions through bluffing or other forms of mixed strategies. (Mixed strategies operate by making an opponent indifferent among the potential outcomes.) Sometimes actors facing uncertainty misperceive a situation and end up with outcomes they would have preferred to avoid. Uncertainty about the characteristics of an actor is called incomplete information; uncertainty about previous actions by nature or by other actors is imperfect information.
- How do perceptions interact with capability and preferences?
- What is incomplete information? What is imperfect information?
- What is a “type”? How do types differ?
- When we solve a game tree for p , what are we trying to find out? In other words, what does p stand for in practical terms?
- How do misperceptions affect behavior? What happens or could happen, in terms of the game tree, when a decision maker has misperceptions?
- How does repetition (“iteration” in formal terms) affect perceptions? Can you think of a game (other than prisoners' dilemma) in which a repeated play would improve the players' payoffs?
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