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Appendix B: Evaluating Arguments

Study

Summary

Appendix B focuses on the scientific method and theoretical thinking.

Theories are explanations of some empirical phenomena. Theoretical studies differ from historical studies because the former are deductive and the latter are in inductive. We need theories to make sense of facts and to guide us as to which facts are relevant.

Theories consist of assumptions, logically derived hypotheses, and predictions. Theories are evaluated based on their logical consistency and the empirical accuracy of their predictions. A scientific theory should be falsifiable in principle. Following the first principle of wing walking, we should hold on to a theory even if it is not perfect until we have a better alternative. Even when there is a theory that appears to be better, we should be cautious when rejecting old theories.

Appendix B introduces the concepts of necessary and sufficient conditions and how these can be falsified. It also discusses the case study method and its problems. In this context, the appendix stresses the importance of avoiding selection bias.

Study Questions

1. What are the differences among a theory, an assumption, and a hypothesis? What roles do assumptions and hypotheses play in a theory?
   



2. Make up a theory that is not falsifiable (it doesn't have to be related to world politics). Why can't we test it? What would need to happen to your theory (or to the available evidence) to make it falsifiable?
   



3. How is the first principle of wing walking related to the scientific method as it is practiced in the natural sciences?
   



4. Think about examples of necessary conditions, sufficient conditions, and necessary and sufficient conditions. How would you falsify those claims?
   



5. What is a selection bias? Give example of a selection bias in the testing a theory of international relations. How would you avoid the selection bias?